Taking a break - no post this week

I am taking a break this week and plan to post again on Sunday, October 4.

All energy is local: The emerging physical delivery problem for petroleum fuels

Even as U.S. diesel and gasoline prices soared in the wake of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, both fuels remained widely available, just more expensive. Now, a few station owners are saying they are out of diesel though this appears to be an isolated problem for the moment. However, if the diesel and gasoline supply situation does not change, more and more stations may find themselves without one or both of these two crucial motor fuels.

Proximity to supply is starting to matter more and more. For example, in Texas (where many refineries and oil fields are located), the statewide average for diesel as of September 20 was $5.9779 per gallon. Regular gasoline was $3.9480 per gallon. In California (where refineries and oil fields are not as plentiful and air pollution rules complicate refining requirements) the statewide average for diesel was $8.4244 per gallon, while regular gasoline was $6.1533 per gallon.

And, it's not just ground transportation that is being affected, of course. Several airlines have announced they are cutting back on flights as a response to higher aviation fuel prices.

Pipeline "solution" to Strait of Hormuz closure gone in a flash

The East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia which delivers oil to the shores of the Red Sea has been an important workaround to the choking of tanker traffic by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, the only exit for tankers from the Persian Gulf to the open sea. The Saudi government claims that 7 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil can flow westward through the pipeline to the port of Yanbu though the current exports are thought to be lower (perhaps 5 mbpd) than that given infrastructure restraints.

But, now that pipeline has been bombed and put out of service. The Saudis are saying that the pipeline has been closed "as a precautionary measure." But that statement seems to underplay what has happened. Satellite images show that the attacks damaged at least two pumping stations. Repairing or replacing these stations may be more involved than simply replacing a section of damaged pipeline since the pipeline sits mostly above ground. And, of course, once repaired the pipeline could simply be attacked again. The 1200-mile length of the pipeline is not easily defended.

The oil-starved importers of the world have been gushing about how much oil has been getting out of the Persian Gulf right under the noses of a threatening Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) who are standing watch with missiles and drones on the shores of the Strait of Hormuz. But even these surreptitious transits have carried volumes far below those transported before the war began, only 7 mbpd versus 20 mbpd. The East-West Pipeline became a crucial source of oil to the world after the Iranians closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Strategic metals literally going up in smoke

I've been writing for more than a decade and a half about a broad category of metals often nowadays dubbed "strategic" because they are crucial to high-tech applications such as solar photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, flat screens, semiconductors, batteries, optics, aerospace and a wide array of military applications including night vision, radar systems, communications satellites, radiation shielding, vehicle armor, submarine hulls, precision weaponry, and on and on.

It is the military applications which interest me here because much of the volume of strategic minerals in most civilian devices can be recycled when devices containing them are junked. But, of course, in warfare the whole point in many cases is to just blow stuff up. And, once you do that to something containing any of the strategic minerals important for military applications, there is no chance to recover the metals and use them again.

That's why this headline caught my eye: "Ukraine's Drone Warfare Devouring 4% Of Global Germanium Demand As China Chokes Supplies." I can't verify whether this claim is true, but some nonzero amount of germanium is being consumed by drone warfare, not just in the Ukraine-Russia war, but also in the Iran war with the United States and Israel. It's important to note that germanium has many civilian applications such as semiconductors, solar energy, autonomous vehicles, scientific instruments, battery  technology and a variety of health care applications.