I almost feel as if the International Monetary Fund, by embracing a forecast of permanently high oil prices, is signalling in a contrarian way a temporary top to the oil market. But, alas, the IMF was roundly criticized since "no other international energy body shares its view." As long as that's true, it'll be a sign that oil has further to run. When the IMF is joined by everyone else (at what price though, $80, $90, $100), then oil's march upward will probably abate and even reverse.
The cause of the "shock": Increasing demand in the face of supply that cannot keep up. It doesn't mean we've reached a peak in world oil production, but we're certainly moving faster than ever toward one.
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