Falling human fertility can't be reversed by cheerleading for motherhood

Elon Musk told the world three years ago that "civilization is going to crumble" without a reversal in the accelerating decline in human fertility. He believes decisions by couples to have fewer children or no children at all because of environmental harms such as climate change (which is linked, of course, to growing population) are wrongheaded.

In Russia leaders are so concerned about falling fertility rates that health agencies are offering financial incentives for having children and free access to fertility treatment while discouraging abortions (which remain legal). The Russian government even revived the "Soviet-era honour award called Mother Heroine, which recognizes and honours women with 10 or more children."

Other countries with low birth rates are also offering incentives:

In Tokyo, the rates are so low that the government is launching a dating app to help citizens find love and get married.

The Japanese government has also tried to boost fertility rates by offering up to a year of parental leave and even cash incentives.

In South Korea, the least fertile country in the world, Seoul is offering people money to reverse their vasectomies or untie their tubes.

That's on top of South Korean companies offering employees up to $75,000 to have children, and a government allowance system that gives all parents with newborns $750 a month until their baby turns one.

While demographic experts insist it is primarily decisions by couples worldwide to marry later and have fewer children that are the cause of this surprising decline in fertility, they ignore the more ominous explanation, declining sperm counts caused by toxic chemicals and unhealthy modern diets (which are, of course, laced with toxic chemicals).

Donald Trump and the impossible destination of Globalism (revisited)

Back in 2016 a month before Donald Trump was elected for the first time, I wrote a piece that I'm revisiting here. So much of what I said then still applies that I encourage you to read that piece. My thinking was heavily informed by a lecture by the now late French philosopher Bruno Latour entitled "Why Gaia is not the Globe."

Latour made the case that Trump's perplexing popularity could be traced to his ability to give voice to the anger and fear generated by the effects of Globalism. In fact, Latour noticed that the anger and fear were actually widespread and reflected in Great Britain's exit from European Union and the many right-wing movements in European countries that now are all too familiar eight years later.

I am capitalizing Globalism because it really is an ideology and not the "inevitable" reality that so many of us think it is. In fact, as Latour explains, it is an impossible destination. First, let me lay out a definition of Globalism by quoting from my 2016 piece:

The American food system creates chronic diseases; the medical system 'manages' them

The explosive growth in the use of weight-loss drugs is a supreme irony within a food system that creates the very chronic diseases that lead to obesity and a medical system that "manages" those conditions with no intention of actually curing them. In fact, "manage" is too kind of word for this setup for the truth is, medical treatment of chronic conditions more often than not just perpetuates these conditions and sometimes makes them worse.

I rarely do book reviews, but I believe Metabolical may be the most important contemporary account of the nexus between modern diets, chronic illness and ecological ruin. So, I'm going to give you a taste of what's in it (pun intended).

According to Dr. Robert Lustig, author of Metabolical, thanks to the food and medical industries, the American public has come to believe the following things:

1. Gaining weight (sometimes lots of it) as we age is normal.


2. Developing chronic conditions such as diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart disease is inevitable for many people.


3. Once a person has a chronic condition, it cannot be reversed and must be managed primarily through medication and sometimes surgery.


4. Cancer strikes mostly randomly.


5. Exercise can prevent at least some of these conditions or even reverse them.

Bird flu, infected cows and playwright Henrik Ibsen

As I contemplate the rampant spread of bird flu through America's cattle herd, I'm reminded of Norwegian playwright Henrik Ibsen's An Enemy of the People. The lead character, Dr. Thomas Stockmann, is the medical officer for the local baths, what we might call a health spa. The baths are a significant new source of income for the city and its residents.

Stockmann discovers that the water coming into the baths is unsanitary and unsafe. He writes a piece for the local newspaper announcing the problem, but the town's leaders (whom we discover later are heavily invested in the baths) stop publication of the piece and vilify Stockmann publicly, labeling him an "enemy of the people."

The veterinarians who warned about the spread of bird flu in American cattle herds earlier this year are today feeling a lot like Thomas Stockmann. According to Vanity Fair magazine, "The vets who sounded the alarm have been silenced, some even fired, and won’t discuss their experiences on the record for fear of reprisals. And the federal agency that was supposed to help thwart the virus instead has allowed for an unspoken 'don’t test, don’t tell' policy among dairy farmers."

AI + synthetic biology: What could possibly go wrong?

Science fiction films are replete with human space travelers visiting far-away planets that have atmospheres suitable for those humans to breath. Thus, the bother of wearing a space suit or other protective gear is dispensed with, and the encounters with alien races, both hostile and friendly, can proceed without such cumbersome gear mucking up the works.

In addition, these planets often have plants and animals that are strikingly similar to those found on Earth. The problem with this all-too-frequent occurrence in science fiction stories is that even if such planets exist, they would have microorganisms entirely unfamiliar to the human body and thus likely to kill it within days or weeks. Humans would have no immunity and suffer a fate similar to that of the indigenous people of North and South America when Europeans arrived bearing diseases unfamiliar to indigenous immune systems and therefore profoundly deadly. Up to 90 percent of the natives perished.

Enter synthetic biology, that is, the engineering of organisms never before seen on Earth. We've already seen it in the form of genetically engineered crops such as GMO soybeans and corn. But that is a pale forerunner of what is about to happen: the marriage of artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology. For many years already scientists have been able to create novel sequences of DNA, and they've already created dangerous designer viruses for research purposes. I've written previously about the possibility of systemic ruin that can flow from these activities. And I've voiced concerns about the democratization of genetic engineering through do-it-yourself kits: "Anyone with a credit card and a mailing address can now order their own genetic engineering kit."

Taking a break - no post this week

I am taking a break this week and plan to post again on Sunday, October 20.

Single point of failure: Hurricane Helene and high-tech's low-tech vulnerability

Among the horrific reports about the damage Hurricane Helene unleashed on the southeastern United States was one about Spruce Pine, North Carolina, population 2,194 (as of the 2020 census). The town was hard hit. One resident reported that the water treatment plant "washed away." Many of the town's old brick riverfront buildings are gone, and the mud is everywhere.

Just to the north of Spruce Pine is what could easily be considered a single point of failure in the supply chain that makes the modern high-tech world possible. It's there that two companies mine quartz so pure that it is suitable (after some refining) for the high-temperature crucibles that are used to melt silicon—melting point 1414 degrees C or 2577 degrees F. I'm referring to the silicon destined to be made into silicon wafers, the basis for modern electronics and photovoltaic solar cells. The crucibles have to be made from ultra-pure quartz so that they don't contain impurities that could ruin the silicon. Top-of-the-line ultra-pure quartz has no more than 80 molecules of impurities for every one billion molecules of silicon dioxide, the chemical formula of sand which turns into quartz in the Earth's crust under great pressures and high temperatures.

It turns out that Spruce Pine produces most of the ultra-pure quartz in the world. Exactly what percentage is a secret held within a small and secretive industry. The largest producer, Sibelco, announced that operations have ceased at its Spruce Pine mines as of September 26. The Quartz Corp. also announced a shutdown as of the same day. How long the two companies' operations will be down is unknown.

Memory in the age of the utterly now: The precarious state of the Internet Archive

"Information wants to be free" has been the watchword of the so-called free culture movement which has manifested itself in such phenomena as the free and open source software community and as Creative Commons. (For those who don't know, Creative Commons is a way to establish rights and authorship of creative works while also specifying how those works can be distributed and used by others in ways that are far less restrictive than traditional copyright—for instance, by allowing for varying levels of sharing, editing and incorporation in the works of others.)

It is in this tradition that following the sale of his web crawling company to Amazon for $250 million in 1999, Brewster Kahle increasingly devoted himself to his nonprofit startup, the Internet Archive, a project which became his full-time pursuit as of 2002 and remains so today. But today, the future of the Internet Archive is highly uncertain.

It is very likely that almost everyone reading this sentence has used the Internet Archive at some point to retrieve internet pages no longer available, to do research, or to archive internet pages for future reference.

Just the clash of opinions or different facts? Facing the epistemological divide

Daniel Patrick Moynihan, the late U.S. senator from New York, was famous for saying, "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." It turns out that not everyone today agrees with Moynihan. It might seem that the rancor in political life that we are witnessing across the globe is merely the result of a clash of opinions. But, this upheaval is actually the product of a vast epistemological divide. (Epistemology is, of course, the study of how we know what we know.) There is no longer a consensus about how to determine what is, in fact, a fact.

I know this because those on each side look at the other and say, "How can they believe that that's true?" What they mean is not the other side's opinions; they mean what the other side believes are facts. In the realm of politics, the ledger on "mistaken" facts may seem lopsided. But politics is the realm of exaggeration and so no side is immune from mistakes.

But I'm more interested in the broader cultural and scientific battle over how to construct facts. Out of habit we think of facts as something freestanding. Facts are true whether we acknowledge them or not. Water boils at 212 degrees F. That's a fact one can't dispute. But, of course, even that fact is context-dependent. The statement is true for water containing no impurities under one atmosphere of pressure. If you add salt, it will raise the boiling point. Even simple statements of fact, it turns out, are more complicated that we think.

Going bananas: Why the approach to the latest banana blight misses the point

You may not know it. But your bananas have been under attack for more than a decade by a small fungus, Fusarium oxysporum. Half of the global production of bananas is in a variety called Cavendish which has become susceptible to a new strain of the fungus. A previous strain of Fusarium wiped out the Gros Michel variety of bananas which used to dominate world markets until the 1950s.

The Cavendish seemed immune to the previous strain and could therefore be planted on the same land—Fusarium lives in the soil—that the Gros Michel occupied. The Cavendish is what is mostly exported to countries that do not grow bananas and therefore what most people see in modern supermarkets and greengrocers. It is named after William Cavendish, the sixth Duke of Devonshire, who received a shipment from a friend who had gotten them from Mauritius. Cavendish's gardener proceeded to cultivate them in the duke's greenhouses.

If you are a banana eater, you may have noticed that the Cavendish you peel and eat every morning has no seeds. It turns out that the Cavendish is propagated by cloning—which means that Cavendish banana trees around the world are genetically identical. And so, every one of them will likely eventually succumb to the new strain of Fusarium as it spreads worldwide.