Sunday, May 25, 2025

The lure of convenience: Why a national digital ID system is a really, really bad idea

We live in an age of convenience. Anything that makes our complicated lives less complicated and less difficult to navigate seems like a boon. And in the digital age—which allows us access to so much information anywhere, anytime—the lure of convenient access is very strong.

On the surface it seems sensible, for instance, to make it possible to log in to just one account for all our government services and interactions instead of having to use separate apps or an account for each service or department. And this would make sense if not for the immense dangers of concentrating such information and therefore making it an irresistible target for hackers. It's also worth considering who might be among those hackers, for example, unfriendly nations and their militaries.

But that is what the British government is proposing for the British public through the government's digital governance initiatives. You probably don't need a long litany of data breaches including those involving governments to confirm your fears. But this article describes recent ones in Britain in the context of the government's determination to roll out a national digital ID system.

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Infrastructure failure in America: Will we find a fix before the unimaginable happens?

Recent events in America's air transport system suggest that the system is becoming more prone to dangerous failures. Those failures include a January 29 mid-air collision between an Army helicopter and a passenger jet Washington, D.C.’s Ronald Reagan National Airport; a harrowing near miss between a landing passenger aircraft and an unauthorized business jet crossing the runway; a plane taxiing to the gate in Denver when an engine caught fire leading to the evacuation of all passengers, all of whom survived; and a blackout of air traffic controllers' screens for 60 to 90 seconds at Newark Liberty International Airport.

The Associated Press compiled a list of recent incidents which can be found here.

No doubt problems have been brewing for some time in our air transport system. While most of the focus is on the air traffic control system, the aging system run by the Federal Aviation Administration, it is probably important to look at America's overall aviation infrastructure which this year received a grade of D+ in the "2025 Report Card from America's Infrastructure" from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).

Sunday, May 11, 2025

"Better" AI has more "hallucinations"

Imagine you are a doctor with a patient whose hallucinations keep increasing. Of course, you might try to figure out how to stabilize the patient if possible so the hallucinations stop increasing in number. And you might be furiously trying to figure out the cause of these hallucinations so that you might reduce or eliminate them. One thing you almost certainly would NOT do is suggest that other people rely on your patient as a source of information.

And yet, that is precisely what developers of a "better" version of artificial intelligence (AI) are telling us to do. According to the linked article, "On one test, the hallucination rates of newer A.I. systems were as high as 79 percent." Contemplate that for a minute when you ask AI for help in answering a question.

Executives in the industry now admit that AI hallucinations—that is, information provided by AI tools that is just made up—will always be part of AI. The reason: AI tools use mathematical probabilities to construct responses. They cannot and will not ever have access to lived human experience and the judgement that results from that experience.

As the linked piece explains:

Another issue is that reasoning models are designed to spend time “thinking” through complex problems before settling on an answer. As they try to tackle a problem step by step, they run the risk of hallucinating at each step. The errors can compound as they spend more time thinking.

Sunday, May 04, 2025

Climate change and the Overton Window

Joseph Overton worked at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a Michigan-based conservative think tank before his untimely death in 2003. Overton observed that there is a narrow range of political ideas that are broadly accepted by the public as normal discourse including ideas they disagree with. Beyond that range of ideas politicians and others get labeled extremist which makes it harder to maneuver as most of the public has prejudged such people. This became known as the Overton Window.

Overton proposed that this window moves over time—women's suffrage, the end of prohibition, and gay marriage all suggest dramatic changes are possible. But the forces that wish to limit public discourse to a narrow range are so powerful that the seeming changes in the Overton window on certain subjects can often obscure a stubborn intransigence.

Climate change went from an obscure scientific phenomenon to being recognized as a central threat to civilization. Despite a broad scientific consensus and worldwide treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Accord, little actual progress has been made in addressing climate change. It is moving faster than ever.

In this context, two recent contrasting stories on climate change show how wide the Overton Window can appear to be without actually challenging anything fundamental in the current system.