Bird flu, infected cows and playwright Henrik Ibsen

As I contemplate the rampant spread of bird flu through America's cattle herd, I'm reminded of Norwegian playwright Henrik Ibsen's An Enemy of the People. The lead character, Dr. Thomas Stockmann, is the medical officer for the local baths, what we might call a health spa. The baths are a significant new source of income for the city and its residents.

Stockmann discovers that the water coming into the baths is unsanitary and unsafe. He writes a piece for the local newspaper announcing the problem, but the town's leaders (whom we discover later are heavily invested in the baths) stop publication of the piece and vilify Stockmann publicly, labeling him an "enemy of the people."

The veterinarians who warned about the spread of bird flu in American cattle herds earlier this year are today feeling a lot like Thomas Stockmann. According to Vanity Fair magazine, "The vets who sounded the alarm have been silenced, some even fired, and won’t discuss their experiences on the record for fear of reprisals. And the federal agency that was supposed to help thwart the virus instead has allowed for an unspoken 'don’t test, don’t tell' policy among dairy farmers."

AI + synthetic biology: What could possibly go wrong?

Science fiction films are replete with human space travelers visiting far-away planets that have atmospheres suitable for those humans to breath. Thus, the bother of wearing a space suit or other protective gear is dispensed with, and the encounters with alien races, both hostile and friendly, can proceed without such cumbersome gear mucking up the works.

In addition, these planets often have plants and animals that are strikingly similar to those found on Earth. The problem with this all-too-frequent occurrence in science fiction stories is that even if such planets exist, they would have microorganisms entirely unfamiliar to the human body and thus likely to kill it within days or weeks. Humans would have no immunity and suffer a fate similar to that of the indigenous people of North and South America when Europeans arrived bearing diseases unfamiliar to indigenous immune systems and therefore profoundly deadly. Up to 90 percent of the natives perished.

Enter synthetic biology, that is, the engineering of organisms never before seen on Earth. We've already seen it in the form of genetically engineered crops such as GMO soybeans and corn. But that is a pale forerunner of what is about to happen: the marriage of artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology. For many years already scientists have been able to create novel sequences of DNA, and they've already created dangerous designer viruses for research purposes. I've written previously about the possibility of systemic ruin that can flow from these activities. And I've voiced concerns about the democratization of genetic engineering through do-it-yourself kits: "Anyone with a credit card and a mailing address can now order their own genetic engineering kit."

Taking a break - no post this week

I am taking a break this week and plan to post again on Sunday, October 20.

Single point of failure: Hurricane Helene and high-tech's low-tech vulnerability

Among the horrific reports about the damage Hurricane Helene unleashed on the southeastern United States was one about Spruce Pine, North Carolina, population 2,194 (as of the 2020 census). The town was hard hit. One resident reported that the water treatment plant "washed away." Many of the town's old brick riverfront buildings are gone, and the mud is everywhere.

Just to the north of Spruce Pine is what could easily be considered a single point of failure in the supply chain that makes the modern high-tech world possible. It's there that two companies mine quartz so pure that it is suitable (after some refining) for the high-temperature crucibles that are used to melt silicon—melting point 1414 degrees C or 2577 degrees F. I'm referring to the silicon destined to be made into silicon wafers, the basis for modern electronics and photovoltaic solar cells. The crucibles have to be made from ultra-pure quartz so that they don't contain impurities that could ruin the silicon. Top-of-the-line ultra-pure quartz has no more than 80 molecules of impurities for every one billion molecules of silicon dioxide, the chemical formula of sand which turns into quartz in the Earth's crust under great pressures and high temperatures.

It turns out that Spruce Pine produces most of the ultra-pure quartz in the world. Exactly what percentage is a secret held within a small and secretive industry. The largest producer, Sibelco, announced that operations have ceased at its Spruce Pine mines as of September 26. The Quartz Corp. also announced a shutdown as of the same day. How long the two companies' operations will be down is unknown.