Sunday, February 23, 2025

Are computers and democracy compatible? Maybe not

The ongoing takeover of U. S. government computer network by a small cadre of radical technologists—with the blessing of the current president of the United States—demonstrates just how vulnerable democratic norms and organizations are to determined technologists who understand the central role of computers and the information stored on them in any modern organization.

With the federal IT infrastructure now increasingly under the control of this group—under what is now being revealed as the false banner of efficiency—the entire population of the United States has become exposed to various forms of manipulation, fraud, bullying, blackmail and public embarrassment. Despite privacy laws, medical records from the Veterans Administration, Medicare and Medicaid are now easy pickings. Tax and income information from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) will now be available to unelected persons who can demonstrate no reason that would override federal privacy laws. I know that the IRS has said that the DOGE worker assigned to the agency will NOT be able to see records of individuals. First, is the claim really credible given that there is no independent third party to observe? And second, what prevents the incoming Trump-appointed IRS commissioner from changing the arrangement without telling anyone?

The information the government has on each of us could be easily copied and given to entities or individuals outside the government for whatever purpose might profit them. The centralization of control of this information and access to it by the president and his political appointees makes each one of us susceptible to attack and reprisal for our views and our affiliations and to any twisted interpretation of the facts that, even if untrue, might be plausible and damaging. Think: medical records regarding treatment for substance abuse or tax records regarding a tax dispute with the Internal Revenue Service that includes information about divorce and child custody.

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Downsizing the U. S. government this way will destroy its effectiveness without increasing its efficiency

Before cutting the ranks of U. S. government employees who safeguard the nation's nuclear material and respond to nuclear accidents, it would seem wise to ask them exactly what tasks they are assigned and how they accomplish them. Apparently, that was not a consideration when the Trump administration through its U. S. Department of Government Efficiency Service (currently run by billionaire Elon Musk) began firing personnel at the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA).

What is happening at the NNSA is a window into why merely downsizing an organization does not necessarily increase its efficiency. On its website the NNSA explains that it has the following missions:

  1. To ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile.

  2. To prevent terrorists from acquiring nuclear or radioactive material that could be used in an attack on the United States, its interests, or allies.

  3. To provide effective nuclear propulsion plants to the U. S. Navy.

  4. To prepare for nuclear and radiological incidents and accidents through planning, training, and exercises and respond to nuclear and radiological incidents and accidents worldwide.

Sunday, February 09, 2025

Why Musk's access to U. S. Treasury payment systems risks a global financial meltdown

Whether or not you share the zeal for cuts in government spending embraced by President Donald Trump and his billionaire sidekick Elon Musk, you should know that giving Musk and his callow team of computer coders access to payment systems at the U. S. Department of Treasury risks a global financial meltdown. It doesn't make such an event certain, but it lowers the odds considerably.

Here's why:

First, the U.S. Department of Treasury processes some $6 trillion in payments each year. If that system were to come to a halt for even a relatively short period of time, the consequences would be devastating, not only for the U.S. economy but for the global economy as well.

It is also important to grasp that the Treasury Department stands behind the entire U.S. banking system. It is the lender of last resort in a banking crisis to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation which insures bank deposits nationwide, and because the Treasury Department has the full faith and credit of the United States government behind it, the department is a potent force for forestalling panic and crisis in the banking system.

Sunday, February 02, 2025

After DeepSeek, AI developers are wrong that The Jevons Paradox will bail them out

In 1865 British economist William Stanley Jevons explained to the public that increased efficiencies in the use of resources per unit of production do not generally lead to lower consumption of those resources. Rather, these efficiencies lead to higher consumption as many more people can now afford the more efficiently produced goods which carry a lower price tag. Jevons was referring to coal, the cost of which was falling and demand for which was rising due to increased efficiencies in production. His idea became known as The Jevons Paradox.

When the Chinese-based artificial intelligence (AI) upstart DeepSeek demonstrated last week that complex and powerful AI can be delivered for a tiny fraction of the cost and resources of current AI tools, DeepSeek's competitors cited The Jevons Paradox and told investors not to worry. Demand for AI would now grow even more rapidly in response to greater efficiencies and thus lower costs.

What those competitors failed to mention is that DeepSeek's breakthrough is great news for buyers of AI tools, but very bad news for current developers who are sellers of those tools. DeepSeek is giving away free or at only 3 percent of competitors' prices (for those needing application programming interface services) something comparable to the very expensive products of its competitors. This suggests that the hundreds of billions of dollars spent developing those expensive tools may have just gone up in smoke. That investment may never be recouped.