A monkey trap offers a reward such as food that when grasped makes the hand too large to withdraw from the hole in the trap giving access to that food. Unless the monkey lets go, the animal is stuck. Now, the obvious choice when danger arrives is to simply let go and run. But, supposedly, monkeys won't let go even as human hunters approach and then club them to death.
The war with Iran has become the Trump administration's monkey trap; potential victory over Iran is the prize in the trap. Strangely, the only prize now available is something that was already available before the war started: freedom of transit through the Strait of Hormuz. But now that Iran has seized control of the strait and effectively closed it to unfriendly traffic, that seizure has become the most important leverage Iran has over the United States and its allies.
As long as the war continues, Iran says there will be no shipments of oil, natural gas, petrochemicals, helium, fertilizers and other key commodities except for its own and a few select shipments from friends of the regime. Since these shipments make up substantial fractions of the world's supplies, closure of the strait has sent prices of these products skyward with shortages already appearing in many places across the globe.
If the Trump administration were to let go and simply withdraw from the conflict, the move would be seen as an acknowledgment of defeat. That is something that the administration and President Donald Trump, in particular, are eager to avoid. First, the acknowledgment that a presumed-to-be second-rate power such as Iran can defeat the United States is an invitation to others to challenge American hegemony elsewhere. The South China Sea and Taiwan come to mind.
Second, support from pro-Israeli groups and megadonors to the Republican party would plummet. Third, losing a war that the vast majority of Americans opposed will only confirm that majority's view and lead to damaging defeats at the polls in the November midterm elections. And, fourth, that loss would be a huge personal embarrassment for Trump who has always portrayed himself as a winner and who frequently calls people he dislikes losers.
A victory on the other hand would presumably avoid all four consequences. In that regard, it is worth remembering that at the beginning of the war, the American goals had been variously explained as 1) regime change, 2) the elimination of Iran's missile capability, and 3) preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Of course, re-opening the Strait of Hormuz to unfettered navigation was not on the list because the strait was already open. Now, items one, two and three appear unattainable. All that remains is to re-open the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian control or tolls.
But the Iranians are making it a matter of having to control all or most of Iran to take control of the Strait from it. After all, they have already demonstrated that they can launch missiles and drones from hundreds of miles away from any target including the strait and hit what they want with precision. Even if the U.S. military gained control of the shoreline and immediate inland areas around the strait—a dangerous and potentially costly move in treasure and life—the military could not prevent attacks by Iran on shipping from further inland.
To complicate matters, dwindling U.S. munitions, both offensive and defensive, are making it more challenging for the United States to defend its bases in the Persian Gulf region and to attack Iran, especially from positions outside Iranian airspace in order to prevent U.S. aircraft from being shot down. Replenishing many of the high-tech munitions expended during the Iran war will take not months but years. Moving ahead with continuing offensive operations risks using up the remaining low inventories of anti-missile batteries and precision long-range ordnance.
The choice for the Trump administration is stark:
1. Go on the offensive and risk exposing the United States and its allies including Israel to greater damage as Iranian missiles and drones overpower depleted missile defense. And, if Iranian energy infrastructure is targeted, risk having much or all of the energy infrastructure in Israel and the Persian Gulf targeted in retaliation by Iran. Such destruction would almost certainly create a worldwide economic depression due to acute global shortages of oil and natural gas that could not be overcome for years.
2. Simply withdraw and thereby accept Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's de facto dominance in Southwest Asia.
3. Maintain the American embargo on Iran without advancing or retreating militarily, something that will lead to the same global economic depression over time as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
As I'm writing this piece, I'm hearing in my head the chorus of a tune made famous as the theme music for the television streaming series "Bosch." The tune is called "Can't let go" and has a chorus that repeats over and over the following line: "I got a feeling that I can't let go."
It appears that President Trump has a feeling that he can't let go. Whether and when he ever does let go should concern everyone on the planet.
Kurt Cobb is a freelance writer and communications consultant who writes frequently about energy and environment. His work has appeared in The Christian Science Monitor, Resilience, Common Dreams, Naked Capitalism, Le Monde Diplomatique, Oilprice.com, OilVoice, TalkMarkets, Investing.com, Business Insider and many other places. He is the author of an oil-themed novel entitled Prelude and has a widely followed blog called Resource Insights. He can be contacted at kurtcobb2001@yahoo.com.
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