Stocks only go up...until they don't: A history lesson and a forecast

I remember years ago eating lunch with my father and his financial advisor. I stated what I thought was an indisputable fact. I said history suggests that stock markets can not only go down but stay down for many, many years. I cited the 1966 top in U.S. stocks and the secular bear market that ensued and lasted until 1982. He asked me if I was recommending that investors bet against America.

I said I wouldn't put it that way. I explained that the world was moving toward an era of energy scarcity, and that since energy is the key factor in economic activity, this could affect the value of stocks. Even if he disagreed, I said that none of us live as long as the stock market has been around and so it seems worthwhile to know about this history of long-term bear markets that might affect our very finite financial lives. He was unruffled.

I turned out to be right about energy costs; the price of oil hit a new record in 2008. But he turned out to be right about the general direction of the U.S. stock market, even if you count the crash of 2008 from which we more than recovered before going on to ever more unsustainable heights. My father was very pleased with the results of this man's advice.

The trouble with copper tariffs

The mainstream news media has already figured out that the Trump administration's proposed tariffs on imported copper of 50 percent would dramatically hike copper prices for American industry and raise the price of products containing copper for consumers, which is just about everything electrical. The reason is simple; The United States is a net importer of 45 percent of its copper needs according the U.S. Geological Survey.

All right, you may say, so there will be some short-term pain until the United States develops enough new copper mining and refining capacity to be self-sufficient. First, it's not easy to build such capacity. New mines can take years to build, assuming you already know where the copper is. As for copper refining, few people want such facilities near them so half the challenge is quelling the opposition to any new refining operations. They also take years to build.

Now nobody is going to spend money building new copper mines and refining facilities unless there is a guarantee that the price of copper will stay sufficiently elevated to justify such investments. Even if the proposed tariffs on imported copper were to go into effect, there can be no guarantee that they would be maintained for the couple of decades that investors need for such long-term investments to pay off.

Denmark takes first step toward owning your own information

Denmark has decided to take the first step toward protecting Danes' personal information by giving them ownership rights to their own image and voice. The Danish culture minister told The Guardian: “In the bill we agree and are sending an unequivocal message that everybody has the right to their own body, their own voice and their own facial features, which is apparently not how the current law is protecting people against generative AI.” The purpose is to prevent "deep fakes" of an individual and to force such "deep fakes" to be taken down when an individual requests it. Under the law those violating it may have to pay compensation.

I have previously floated the idea of a constitutional amendment that gives all persons ownership of their information. How far that should extend is open to discussion. But it really ought to extend, for example, to the photos many people are taking over this holiday weekend in the United States at family gatherings.

However, the minute those photos are posted, the owner immediately loses control of them, either through the sweeps of artificial intelligence (AI) bots hoovering up everything on the internet or through websites where the photos are posted. These websites may have user agreements that give those websites certain rights to your pictures.