tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post7887704420181553220..comments2024-03-24T11:01:27.668-04:00Comments on Resource Insights: Nonlinear: New York, London, Shanghai underwater in 50 years?Kurt Cobbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-2782016168470151872015-07-28T11:42:06.133-04:002015-07-28T11:42:06.133-04:00Let me respond to comments so far:
It's alway...Let me respond to comments so far:<br /><br />It's always useful to be reminded of Albert Barlett's most famous line. We still don't understand as a species how our exponential growth in the use of resources and the dumping of wastes in our air, water and soil are diminishing our prospects for survival.<br /><br />Didier implies that oil prices must remain high and can't fluctuate if the rate of extraction is constrained. But he ignores the effects of high prices on the economy. High oil prices tend to slow economic activity. 10 of the last 11 recessions have been associated with an oil price spike. Record and near record high average daily prices in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 have had just such an effect. Low prices today aren't historically low, but rather merely average--and that in a sluggish economic environment, not a robust one. In fact, the pattern which <a href="http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2008/08/does-queueing-theory-explain-oils-wild.html" rel="nofollow">queuing theory</a> suggests for a system near 100 percent capacity is a rapid cycling between spikes and crashes. That's what we're seeing and expect to see. He or she also implies that Hansen's work is a prediction, when it is a model used to assess risks and responses based on the severity and probability of the events modeled. It is not insignificant harm we face if we choose to ignore Hansen and he turns out to be right. We're not merely handicapping trivial outcomes such as sport events.<br /><br />Anonymous tries to confuse the issue by cleverly conflating the rising rate of increase in carbon dioxide concentrations and the absolute level of concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. One is a flow rate and the other is a stock or inventory of something, in this case, carbon dioxide. He or she is correct that the posited effects on climate of carbon dioxide concentrations is logarithmic, simply stated, each doubling creates roughly the same increase in temperature. But this doesn't make the acceleration of the RATE of increase any less concerning since the EFFECTS of rising global temperatures is increasingly being shown to be NONLINEAR, that is, harm caused rises in a steepening curve; and it is the harmful EFFECTS of climate change, not mere mathematical relationships which we must be concerned with.Kurt Cobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-17954485286562215052015-07-28T09:00:50.646-04:002015-07-28T09:00:50.646-04:00Kurt - you do understand that the CO2 concentratio...Kurt - you do understand that the CO2 concentration in air relationship to greenhouse effects is not linear, but rather log based. So your depiction of increased rates of CO2 emissions actually represents a decreasing rate of greenhouse effects over time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-36317593472130494382015-07-27T12:55:33.534-04:002015-07-27T12:55:33.534-04:00To be honest: i'm still shell shocked by the o...To be honest: i'm still shell shocked by the oil price decline. I was so into the peak oil story, i have been a frequent reader of your pieces, that it was almost unbelievable to see the price go down. Hopefully this predection will be as bad, short term.didiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-78808128635553494642015-07-27T12:06:50.452-04:002015-07-27T12:06:50.452-04:00Epitaph for Humans:
"The greatest shortcoming...Epitaph for Humans:<br />"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Prof. Al Bartlettxraymike79http://www.collapseofindustrialcivilization.comnoreply@blogger.com