tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post5514861748099555675..comments2024-03-24T11:01:27.668-04:00Comments on Resource Insights: Napping on the railroad tracksKurt Cobbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-66482029233055990372007-12-05T11:40:00.000-05:002007-12-05T11:40:00.000-05:00Thanks for the discussion of Taleb's book. I think...Thanks for the discussion of Taleb's book. I think the more exposure it gets, the better. I only wish I had written it.<BR/>More people need to understand the limitations of statistics and mathematics. The predictive modeling sciences are great when used properly and under the right conditions, but we always have to make sure that the people making decisions and the people making models remember that they are specifically models, not reality. Just because my child makes a very accurate picture of a horse, it doesn't mean that horses can be constructed with paper and crayons. Our models of technology advancement and economics do not create the future, they only model one possible outcome of our actions. <BR/>The Black Swan I fear is not the 'surprise' one, but the one that has been purposely buried in order to maintain the bell curve profits of petroleum dependency.<BR/>Trust no one, but get to know everyone. Know who your neighbors are, and whether you can count on them to cooperate with you. That's the best we can do with the faults in our System of failed information-based systems. If everyone is lying about the important things, then make sure the people you do deal with are within reach of your pitchfork.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-31299632473850424942007-07-22T00:50:00.000-04:002007-07-22T00:50:00.000-04:00When I first heard of Peak Oil it was like a bell ...When I first heard of Peak Oil it was like a bell rang in my head and a lot of things that had made me uneasy all of a sudden made sense. Once you have the realization you wonder why everyone else can't or won't see it. I am pretty naive I suppose as one of my main worries was that no one in our government seemed to realize that we were and are 'napping on the tracks'. But I was wrong, I think to not give TPTB more credit. There is a plan 'B' and it involves taking what we need. I am afraid it will all degenerate into a 'last man standing' situation, and the last man standing will be the one with the most nukes that uses them first.Sailorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12921177435940480006noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-6174988654981618322007-07-21T21:20:00.000-04:002007-07-21T21:20:00.000-04:00StepBackThat’s why when forecasting models we inve...StepBack<BR/><BR/>That’s why when forecasting models we investigate the 'facts' to produce the most accurate model, instead of relying on blind faith and bias opinions. Just remember energy can’t be exchanged for technology, the two aren’t the same.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-80497686994843624342007-07-19T09:59:00.000-04:002007-07-19T09:59:00.000-04:00I guess Yergin will live forever, based on past ob...I guess Yergin will live forever, based on past observations!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-48752379063870630462007-07-14T05:17:00.000-04:002007-07-14T05:17:00.000-04:00P.S. A validating find for my BS model about valid...P.S. A validating find for my BS model about validation is <A HREF="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/07/economic-resear.html" REL="nofollow">here</A>.<BR/><BR/>Excerpt:<BR/>Over the past month, I have been to the following stores:<BR/><BR/> Public<BR/> Target (TGT)<BR/> Home Depot (HD)<BR/> Lowes (LOW)<BR/> Best Buy (BBY)<BR/> Circuit City (CC) ...Step Backhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06178091823442339760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-15305820549661161272007-07-14T05:07:00.000-04:002007-07-14T05:07:00.000-04:00So just a little more on predictive modeling and v...So just a little more on predictive modeling and validation.<BR/><BR/>Say I am running a Cornucopian model inside my head. In other words, the Market always provides and "technology" (whatever that is) is forever progressing forward.<BR/><BR/>So say I'm not a technical person but I know how to step into a technology store, like a Circuit City or a Radio Shack or what have you.<BR/><BR/>One day I step in and they are selling vacuum tube color TV's. Wow this technology is cool! The next decade, I step into the store and "they" have created transistorized TV's with remote controls ... and computers. Skip forward to modern day and they are showcasing the iPhone.<BR/><BR/>All this validates my Cornucopian internal model. Floor 33, and so far not only so good, but it seems to be getting better! What are those Gloom & Doom others talking about? I think I'm going to continue modeling them as being lunatics. My everyday validation tests show they are lunatics. No need to waste time listening to their rants. My internal models prove themselves to be always correct.Step Backhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06178091823442339760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-8411102435614807302007-07-14T04:55:00.000-04:002007-07-14T04:55:00.000-04:00Calling ourselves planning animals is somewhat nai...Calling ourselves <I>planning animals</I> is somewhat naive and self congratulatory.<BR/><BR/>The human brain is full models. Models that try to emulate the external world.<BR/><BR/>If I consider myself an "empathic" person it is probably because I have a model of you, of what you are like, running inside my head. I can step into that model and pretend that I am feeling what you are feeling. Then I have a sense of "empathy" for your situation.<BR/><BR/>I have other models running in my head that try to emulate the world. What is it like? What makes it go round and tick the way it does?<BR/><BR/>Perhaps my world model includes an Invisible Hand and a Market that mysteriously comes around to make everything right in the end. Perhaps my internally-kept model includes a section for Peak Oil, population overshoot, Global warming; or none of the above. It's different for every human being.<BR/><BR/>With a model, I can race it forward in time and see what happens. That's called predictive modeling. I can also test the validity of my predictive model by waiting to see what actually happens. For more insight on predictive models, see <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalman_filter" REL="nofollow">Kalman Filters</A>.Step Backhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06178091823442339760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-78717900814144734592007-07-10T08:02:00.000-04:002007-07-10T08:02:00.000-04:00But even though Yergin admits that oil is a finite...<I>But even though Yergin admits that oil is a finite resource (and that therefore its total quantity is declining), he invites us to snooze with him on the railroad tracks because history has shown that so far that it's been safe to do so.</I><BR/><BR/>The analogy I like to use here is to pretened that you've jumped off a 100-storey building. Falling past the first 99 floors causes no harm at all, but you'd obviously be wrong to assume that the 100th is going to be the same.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-50911538094029729352007-07-09T09:19:00.000-04:002007-07-09T09:19:00.000-04:00What a wonderful essay.I've left aside my copy of ...What a wonderful essay.<BR/><BR/>I've left aside my copy of The Black Swan for a while, but you've done a very thorough mapping from Taleb's arguments to Peak Oil.<BR/><BR/>I agree that it all about the precautionary principal (and also, finding paths that benefit us today, and in a wide range of future outcomes).<BR/><BR/>My patience is pretty much gone with Peak Oiler's locked into this scenario or that. They, as you note, have a very specific reading of current affairs, and a fixed belief in a single path going forward.<BR/><BR/>The future is uncertain ... but I know my refrigerator has cut my electric bills, and I'll only put $20 worth of gas in my Prius ... next week.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com