tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post4667070402648387311..comments2024-03-24T11:01:27.668-04:00Comments on Resource Insights: How the coming home heating crisis could threaten the gridKurt Cobbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-55587570992211003702009-08-24T20:58:19.073-04:002009-08-24T20:58:19.073-04:00HI - I like your site. I thought your readers may...HI - I like your site. I thought your readers may be interested in the site I just launched - www.lowermyheat.com. It offers a free test to determine if our system thinks someone is paying too much for home oil or propane.<br /><br />Best,<br />Arik Keller<br />arikkeller@gmail.comAKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05392243779461067962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-60702783004051066812008-08-12T14:47:00.000-04:002008-08-12T14:47:00.000-04:00It's funny how things change. Now it looks like we...It's funny how things change. Now it looks like we have a potential oversupply problem for natgas in North America. We need to build an LNG export capability in order to take advantage of the massive spread between US and European natgas prices, but this takes a lot of time and money.Bullwinklehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04925040473295064927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-79606884570908531702008-05-10T08:30:00.000-04:002008-05-10T08:30:00.000-04:00Hi Folks,This is my first time commenting. With th...Hi Folks,<BR/><BR/>This is my first time commenting. With the price of oil now over $12.00 per barrel people in NY are freaking out about the high price of home heating oil (now $4.20 per gallon. Local metropolitan utilitieis realize our fears and are offering free NG furnaces to get us to convert from oil to gas.<BR/><BR/>My knee jerk response was initially to rush to make such a conversion before I learned of the cost of conversion, which for me would be over $5,000.00 (and I already have a NH water heater.)<BR/><BR/>At the current cost of $4.20 per gallon of oil I commute it would save approximately 70 cents per gallon if I make the conversion, but that is if NG prices do not increase.<BR/><BR/>Simple logic tells me if more people panic and rush to NG the price of NG will go up and oil might even drop.<BR/><BR/>I'm thinking maybe I should just stay with oil but my furnace and burner are 19 years old and tank is 16 years old and it is just a matter of time before I have a make a major investment in any case.<BR/><BR/>Any recommendations other than moving to Florida?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-63798253437894410702008-02-06T20:14:00.000-05:002008-02-06T20:14:00.000-05:00Andy,Probably you've examined the following or don...Andy,<BR/><BR/>Probably you've examined the following or done them already: extra insulation and passive solar elements added to your existing home. There's always a wood stove and some of them can be very efficient in their fuel use. But, of course, if everybody decided to heat with wood, our remaining forests would quickly disappear. You get similar problems with stoves that run on other biomass such as corn or wood pellets both of which are getting more expensive.<BR/><BR/>I predict that some people will start returning to coal. I'm not an advocate of that. I think it will be a disaster from a pollution and global warming standpoint.<BR/><BR/>Having an efficient natural gas furnace will certainly keep your costs down, and I actually think that natural gas will remain available to home users for some time. I think the transition will occur mostly with businesses. Perhaps we will get some re-regulation of the natural gas market that will favor home users. I can see this happening for political reasons.<BR/><BR/>If you are in areas that have plentiful electricity, and the Unplanner above suggests which areas those are, you can add some electric space heat for emergencies or for keeping certain zones warm while the rest of the house isn't in use. (I disagree with Unplanner about electric heat being a good choice in Quebec. For why see my comments above.)<BR/><BR/>In truth, there isn't any good solution for the existing housing stock. If we could rebuild everything superinsulated and with passive solar design, we could probably get what little extra heat we need at least partly from electric heaters (which ought to get their electricity from wind, solar, hydro and nuclear) and from biomass. But simply being more efficient with natural gas--however virtuous and appropriate it may be--only delays the day of reckoning. It doesn't really solve anything.Kurt Cobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-6338666028485068412008-02-06T16:47:00.000-05:002008-02-06T16:47:00.000-05:00Hi Kurt, Scary post. A family member just gave me ...Hi Kurt, <BR/><BR/>Scary post. A family member just gave me some money to update my natural gas heater with. Quite frankly, I don't want to "bet on the wrong horse" so to speak. If you were in my shoes, what sort of heating system would you go with? <BR/><BR/>Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-79666690542254073952008-01-27T22:29:00.000-05:002008-01-27T22:29:00.000-05:00Why on Earth don't we create natural gas from sewa...Why on Earth don't we create natural gas from sewage?<BR/>This sort of thing can be done with existing technology and there is no shortage of raw material!Nancyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03559138404570089435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-79498036334967630762008-01-27T17:52:00.000-05:002008-01-27T17:52:00.000-05:00Mike,You need to read this site:lifeaftertheoilcra...Mike,<BR/><BR/>You need to read this site:<BR/><BR/>lifeaftertheoilcrash.net<BR/><BR/>cheers,<BR/><BR/>Dermot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-83950303138150778002008-01-27T08:58:00.000-05:002008-01-27T08:58:00.000-05:00For a preview of what we face, look at this post n...For a preview of what we face, look at <A HREF="http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3546#more" REL="nofollow">this post</A> now up on <I>The Oil Drum</I>. Natural gas AND electricity shortages are hitting elsewhere as a particularly cold winter sweeps through Europe and Asia.Kurt Cobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-83876770405203557122008-01-26T21:45:00.000-05:002008-01-26T21:45:00.000-05:00This is a very real threat, and (although this com...This is a very real threat, and (although this comment is a bit delayed), just a few days after reading it, I saw a relevant event right close to home. Here in Japan, many farmers turn to heated greenhouse operations in the winter. Until now this has been profitable, but starting this year the high price of crude has sent their fuel bills skyrocketing. For some, the fuel subsidies now in the works came too late, and they have shut down operations. Farmers are trying various means to cut fuel bills, such as by insulating more, and one "solution" has been to turn to electric heat.<BR/><BR/>Last year and this year, the high cost of kerosene (for residential space heating) has induced many consumers to switch from kerosene to electricity space heating. Electric space heaters are selling well.<BR/><BR/>Although Japan's grid appears to be well maintained, I don't know how much excess capacity it has. And generating capacity itself is sometimes strained, which is why the electric company often exhorts us to conserve. Further, there will be a big hike in electricity rates in April.<BR/><BR/>So this turn away from kerosene and heating oil to electricity can't be good.Rice Farmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09172342023074235356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-65852072013555496642008-01-23T06:55:00.000-05:002008-01-23T06:55:00.000-05:00Hi, this is Mike again.Everyday folks don't usuall...Hi, this is Mike again.<BR/><BR/>Everyday folks don't usually read blogs like this, so my comments & questions were geared to represent those point of view that never make it here--like my family and friends back in Ohio. Their situation looks dire.<BR/><BR/>Your answers were splendid, by the way.<BR/><BR/>Would that more people (esp. in the Midwest U.S.) would read blogs like this!<BR/><BR/>MikeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-5355148090242098572008-01-22T12:17:00.000-05:002008-01-22T12:17:00.000-05:00Many areas either through deregulation or the way ...<I>Many areas either through deregulation or the way the utility system was set up in the first place have NG fired generation that is NOT on any sort of contractual arrangement to be supplied with gas.</I><BR/><BR/>This is exactly the situation in the UK too. About 60% (iirc) of our electricity generation is from NG, and it's also the number 1 home heating fuel. In the case of shortages, domestic users are prioritised.<BR/><BR/><I>I think you need look no further than the ideologies of the current administrations in both countries. They both believe that the marketplace can solve everything.</I><BR/><BR/>Indeed - witness the current rush to build LNG regassification capacity in many NG-importing nations. I was horrified to read on The Oil Drum that the world's LNG regassification capacity is currently twice the world's LNG liquefaction capacity, and there is no sign of the balance being redressed. It seems that everyone is assuming they'll be able to buy all the LNG they need, without worrying about who else might be trying to do the same.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-41223274372296239362008-01-22T08:46:00.000-05:002008-01-22T08:46:00.000-05:00Mike, I just wanted to point out in response to yo...Mike, I just wanted to point out in response to your wariness that the government also didn't tell us about the financial disaster that is wreaking havoc in the U.S. right now. All we heard was that everything was rosy and good, and even when things started to go downhill they said it wouldn't last and recovery was on its way. Not until billions of dollars of losses and the stock market tanking made it obvious that we are in trouble did they say, "Hey, we may have a recession in the making." (You THINK???). <BR/><BR/>Anyway, there were lots of financially savvy people out there who saw it coming and tried to warn people. I followed these people's articles and tried to warn family and friends and they all said, "No, the government (and even mainstream economists) say everything's fine, it's just a local problem confined to certain areas." So yes, there are situations where the govt. doesn't tell you there is a crisis in the making and yet lots of other people know there are.<BR/><BR/>Follow the common sense of their logic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-45513187091496127482008-01-21T21:04:00.000-05:002008-01-21T21:04:00.000-05:00There is, maybe, a way out.In 2007, the USA in sta...There is, maybe, a way out.<BR/><BR/>In 2007, the USA in stalled a surprising 5.25 GW of new wind turbines. Minnesota + Iowa are now larger than California. Texas is leading the pack, with substitution of natural gas fired electricity driving the change.<BR/><BR/>Ontario has VERY good winter wind (load factors above 40%) and this wind can save some of their hydropower and NG for calm, cold nights.<BR/><BR/>Ontario now plans to build 1.6 GW of wind turbines and then "pull back". Aggressive expansion seems a better choice.<BR/><BR/>Ontario is also spending almost a billion $ improving and expanding Niagara Falls generation (adding 200 MW to over 2 GW and reducing friction losses) and reducing the % of time that water is allowed over the falls unused from 60% to 15%. Other hydropower is also being expanded. But wind has greater room for expansion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-63398692653266928322008-01-21T08:34:00.000-05:002008-01-21T08:34:00.000-05:00Unplanner,Thanks for your insightful comments. As...Unplanner,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your insightful comments. As I thought about this problem further, I realized that different areas of U. S. have different capacity margins and, of course, different fuel mixes for electricity as you point out. So, you are surely correct that the effects will be concentrated in certain regions, most notably mine in the Midwest and Great Lakes region where natural gas heating is all but universal. (The northeast is, for example, largely dependent on heating oil.) Of course, the south is unlikely to be hit very hard at all.<BR/><BR/>On one point I did get some information from my hosts in Toronto about hydro power in Quebec. They indicated that Quebec Hydro is obligated under an agreement signed in the '70s to ship two-thirds of its electricity to the United States. Abundant power, yes. Available in the amounts that <I>both</I> the U. S. and Canada will need at the point of the crisis? I wonder.Kurt Cobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-64913168009718639712008-01-21T04:23:00.000-05:002008-01-21T04:23:00.000-05:00Been a while since I posted but I do have a few co...Been a while since I posted but I do have a few comments on this. The incremental demand shouldnt be great enough to destabilize the grids, especially in areas used to much higher summer loads and where natural gas is not a fuel of choice for the utilities. I seriously doubt areas served by cheap and abundant hydro (PacNW and Quebec) or by a coal/nuke mix + mild winters (the SE US) will have this problem. I could see the concern in the midwest and industrialized great lakes/NE with their severe winters, though.<BR/><BR/>But here is another way natural gas crisis could affect the grid, probably more concerning. Many areas either through deregulation or the way the utility system was set up in the first place have NG fired generation that is NOT on any sort of contractual arrangement to be supplied with gas. In an emergency, they would be cut off. Equally concerning during periods of high fuel costs (but no bone fide shortage) these generators do not have any contractual obligation to generate. In otherwords, they could simply shut down, sell their gas futures to a higher bidder or just wait it out until the price falls again. This is a real problem if your grid is overloaded and your peakers are offline due to the fact the owners are selling their gas to someone else. Its even more worrying where the baseload generation IS gas and no real good long term contracts exists. <BR/><BR/>Just somethign to consider.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-85101657412899381042008-01-20T22:35:00.000-05:002008-01-20T22:35:00.000-05:00Mike,There is some indication that the Federal Ene...Mike,<BR/><BR/>There is some indication that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has an inkling of the situation since it is trying to enlarge underground storage for natural gas in the United States. But this is hardly a permanent solution. You can't store what you don't extract!<BR/><BR/>Just so you don't have to take my word for it that we face such a crisis, you need only go to the U. S. Energy Information Agency site and look up North American production since 1998. It's a nice, virtually flat plateau. Also, Julian Darley has written a whole book about it called "High Noon for Natural Gas" which deals with the approaching worldwide peak in natural gas though I think that peak is a bit further off than Darley indicates.<BR/><BR/>As to why neither the Canadian nor the American governments have done anything about this impending crisis, I think you need look no further than the ideologies of the current administrations in both countries. They both believe that the marketplace can solve everything. Once natural gas prices get high enough, we'll simply go out and find more gas.<BR/><BR/>Well, they are right about one thing. High prices have encouraged drillers to look for more gas in a big way. But high prices cannot <I> create</I> gas under the ground. Unfortunately, neither administration understands much about the natural world and how it actually works. They are hostages to cornucopian magical thinking that tells them that high prices always bring forth more of a resource or its nearest substitute. Here, of course, the most ready substitute, electricity isn't such a great substitute. And, it's hard to see what else might work in a natural gas furnace without a retrofit of some kind. What they don't like to talk about is sometimes there is what is politely referred to as <A HREF="http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2006/01/demand-destruction-who-gets-destroyed.html" REL="nofollow">demand destruction</A>. In the case of natural gas in North America that will mean people get cold or poorer or both.<BR/><BR/>The only thing that has saved us from an acute crisis so far are mild winters, temperate summers and that fact that more than half of the American nitrogen fertilizer industry has moved offshore. (Natural gas is a primary feedstock for such fertilizer and high prices are in the process of destroying a whole industry in North America.)<BR/><BR/>As for what to do about it, I can only say that in the short run there are only emergency preparations, i.e. warm blankets, alternate means of heat if possible, food that can be prepared and eaten without electricity, in other words, the usual suspects.<BR/><BR/>Once the crisis has passed, many industries using natural gas will substitute other fuels in place of natural gas (probably coal) and some will simply go out of business. The market will balance, but at a terrible cost. The economic effects will be staggering.<BR/><BR/>At that point even the most pigheaded of ideologues will be forced to call for and enforce conservation.<BR/><BR/>I suspect that in the long run people will return to coal for home heating and this, of course, will be an air pollution and global warming disaster. There other ways to heat a house. But people will gravitate toward what they can afford and coal remains cheap.Kurt Cobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-87074684712016087472008-01-20T15:26:00.000-05:002008-01-20T15:26:00.000-05:00I'm simply not able to process this completely. So...I'm simply not able to process this completely. Something in me says, "this can't be, it doesn't compute."<BR/><BR/>How can it be?<BR/><BR/>You're telling me that you, Mr Cobb, know of this natural gas crisis, but that either the government doesn't know it, or it doesn't care about it, or it isn't telling us what it knows about it?<BR/><BR/>How can things be this dysfunctional?<BR/><BR/>I have family in the Midwest who live entirely dependent on N.G. for EVERYTHING: heating, cooking, hot water, electricity, driers.<BR/><BR/>But I'm afraid to send this column out to them. I'll just look like a kook to them.<BR/><BR/>If this is true, WTF are we supposed to DO?<BR/><BR/>Mike.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com