tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post112287052782374301..comments2024-03-24T11:01:27.668-04:00Comments on Resource Insights: Oil Supplies and the "Infallible" Goddess of the MarketplaceKurt Cobbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-1123010047963443452005-08-02T15:14:00.000-04:002005-08-02T15:14:00.000-04:00The possibility that the product produced might b...The possibility that the product produced might be impossible to produce one day because of shortages is never an assumption of the free market. On the other hand, we should not mess with the market to the extent that it produces high prices. Higher prices may never give us sufficient alternative sources, but, in the absence of rationing or mandatory conservation measures, it is crucial to send the signal to the consumer that they need to change their ways. As far as the producer of oil goes, the signal of higher prices will only be effective if the producer believes that resources are to be found or that additional drilling will be covered by the permanently high prices. If the producer fears he will be burned by future lower prices, he may just keep the cash, raise salaries, dividents, buy back stock, etc. <BR/><BR/>So you see, the market works perfectly, except when it doesn't.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-1122984010599515442005-08-02T08:00:00.000-04:002005-08-02T08:00:00.000-04:00Peak oil has caused me to study economics, which I...Peak oil has caused me to study economics, which I never had much of an interest in. So it has expanded my horizons.<BR/><BR/>That being said, I have learned to hate economists. I think they are deluded, as deluded as advocates of table tapping, leeches, and freudian psychoanalysis, from the not-too-distant past.<BR/><BR/>This quote by skeptic steven bratman sums up the problem well:<BR/><BR/>"If the hard sciences are problematic, one wonders whether there is any rational reason to favor any conclusions drawn by the soft sciences. Consider economics. An economy is a complex system with multiple interlocking variables and a great range of natural variation, much like a human body. Because it isn't possible to change just one variable in an economy, nor to try an experiment twice by starting an identical society under new rules, economic analysis is really the equivalent of observational evidence (economic records) combined with plausible reasoning (an economic model). In medicine we have seen that observational evidence combined with plausible reasoning can lead to conclusions that are the exact opposite of truth." [!]Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-1122967508777568622005-08-02T03:25:00.000-04:002005-08-02T03:25:00.000-04:00People using the "free market" argument can go pou...People using the "free market" argument can go pound sand.<BR/><BR/>There is NOT a 'free market' for oil. Oil is backed by wacky tax laws, a money structure that is fiat, and force of arms.<BR/><BR/>Hardly a free market. It is a market built on sand.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-1122941033040687052005-08-01T20:03:00.000-04:002005-08-01T20:03:00.000-04:00I also concur. Given that after the peak, we'll s...I also concur. Given that after the peak, we'll still have plenty of oil, I have come to believe that raising awareness is very important - it raises the chances that the globe might share.<BR/><BR/>Markets, by themselves, do not share, they sequester resources for those who have capital.JMShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06199754488740884930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-1122890260564330692005-08-01T05:57:00.000-04:002005-08-01T05:57:00.000-04:00Thank you for this posting, Kurt, and for the link...Thank you for this posting, Kurt, and for the links to several other important documents. You've provided a very good 'short course' in peak oil and its implications. Coupled with R. Heinberg's new newsletter (on a proposed international protocol for handling depletion), it makes for encouraging reading!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-1122875614720074102005-08-01T01:53:00.000-04:002005-08-01T01:53:00.000-04:00Godess is a good way to phrase it because too many...Godess is a good way to phrase it because too many have faith based belief in the choices made by the market. They deny the undeniable failures of markets, like in tragedy of the commons situations. Look at what the markets have done to our oceans: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/05/030515075848.htmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com