tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post1119089214884118143..comments2024-03-24T11:01:27.668-04:00Comments on Resource Insights: The hype cycle: How the oil and gas industry manipulates investors and the publicKurt Cobbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-13951691810610204712013-10-07T12:38:09.613-04:002013-10-07T12:38:09.613-04:00Great article. Thanks for the post.Great article. Thanks for the post.Dan Beecrofthttp://www.firstlibertyenergy.info/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-66498357119098401112013-08-22T17:32:42.861-04:002013-08-22T17:32:42.861-04:00What matters most with oil is the price!
In 1973,...<b>What matters most with oil is the price!</b><br /><br />In 1973, the U.S. was the World's Biggest Oil Producer.<br />In 1973, the U.S. imported only 35% of its oil (44.6% in 2011).<br /><br />Despite this situation, the 1973 oil crisis in the Middle East ended the post-World War II economic boom and the recession in the U.S. lasted from November 1973 to March 1975.<br />U.S. unemployment rate jumped from 4.9% in 1973 to 8.5% in 1975.<br /><br /><b>So, the idea that being the world's biggest oil producer will protect the U.S. from a new oil crisis is not realistic.</b>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-45001406698005178852013-08-20T11:47:26.393-04:002013-08-20T11:47:26.393-04:00Thanks for your comment on my comment. Actually, I...Thanks for your comment on my comment. Actually, I see it slightly differently. Many mid-level managers do understand these issues (I had one colleague who taped a hand-drawn Hubbert Curve to his office door) but most don’t. They go to work day after day and think mostly of short-term issues (such as where the next project is coming from). Like most other people they do not see that the world could change.<br /><br />It’s a pity because, as I noted, these people are numerate, have access to key data and are (at least by human standards) rational. I see many people in the Peak Oil movement complaining that the mainstream media do not explain these issues to the general public. That may be a step too far; maybe the true leadership could come from these mid-level managers and technical experts.<br /><br />If you are looking for an example, consider Matt Simmons. His writings and speeches are what introduced me to this topic. When he spoke to engineering/management groups he seemed to be “one of us”. Even the way he dressed seemed to fit in. He was a true leader.<br />ChemEnghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05168251215012150114noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-1569688997475864702013-08-20T10:56:35.534-04:002013-08-20T10:56:35.534-04:00Thanks for such insightful comments. The first ano...Thanks for such insightful comments. The first anonymous commenter is correct to point out that even if the outlandish claims for Spraberry/Wolfcamp were to turn out to be true, the amount of oil wouldn't last the world very long, and, of course, it wouldn't come out all at once on demand, but at a fairly slow rate over many decades.<br /><br />ChemEng points to something I already know from experience. Many of those who work for the oil industry understand our energy predicament better than they are letting on (for fear of losing their jobs or at least the acceptance of some of their colleagues with whom they must work on a daily basis). The top managers are obliged to pitch investors and lobby legislatures and so habitually put the most optimistic spin on everything.<br /><br />The second anonymous commenter points to work by Bernstein, an investment management firm which has been unafraid to look out for its investors' interest when it comes to oil and gas investments. Their analysis has been careful and data-driven and points to a relatively short boom in the shale gas and tight oil fields of America.Kurt Cobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-83172202083804208612013-08-19T10:32:01.206-04:002013-08-19T10:32:01.206-04:00According to AllianceBernstein, the shale oil revo...<b>According to AllianceBernstein, the shale oil revolution is already ending and oil prices are going to surge.</b><br /><br />Productivity of the newest plays to come on drillers' radars have not come close to what's been coming out of the Bakken in North Dakota and Eagle Ford in Texas.<br /><br />And even for those two, he says, peak recovery rates of new wells drilled have been declining and flat, respectively.<br /><br />As a result, drillers are moving on to less productive basins and lower-quality acreage.<br /><br />In order to maintain current levels of overall production, marginal conventional production must be maintained with high oil prices. We expect marginal cost inflation will continue.<br /><br />We forecast $96/bbl WTI for 2013, $101/bbl WTI for 2014, and longer term prices above $120/bbl and rising after 2017.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-64314277023941771332013-08-19T05:29:09.027-04:002013-08-19T05:29:09.027-04:00Mr. Cobb:
Your blog refers to chief executives an...Mr. Cobb:<br /><br />Your blog refers to chief executives and spokespersons on the one hand and increasingly skeptical analysts on the other. There is also another group of people who could influence the way in which we approach peak resource issues. I refer to the middle managers, senior engineers and scientists, consultants and project managers who work in the oil and process industries. They have a good grasp as to how the energy industry works and are comfortable with numbers (including charts and graphs). <br /><br />Obviously they have a financial interest in the success of their companies, but their income is more on a straight salary or hourly rate basis. If this group of people were to become more aware of the long-term trends discussed in blogs such as this they may well be able to influence the broader discourse. And it is they who will be needed to implement any changes in direction that we need to make.<br />ChemEnghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05168251215012150114noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-34329974880717451932013-08-19T02:24:27.444-04:002013-08-19T02:24:27.444-04:00The one thing that you do not mention is that Amer...The one thing that you do not mention is that America consuming 22% of world oil consumption consumes 7 billion barrels of oil each year. Assuming no increase in consumption this find if it came to fruition would last less than 7 years. It would last the world less than 2 years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com