tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post7131442563484933470..comments2024-02-20T13:32:06.704-05:00Comments on Resource Insights: When the believers stop believing: Chesapeake dumps shale gas assetsKurt Cobbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-27755145863689522772011-03-09T19:14:52.282-05:002011-03-09T19:14:52.282-05:00TIME FOR A FEW BLACK SWANS!
Nassim Taleb’s brilli...TIME FOR A FEW BLACK SWANS!<br /><br />Nassim Taleb’s brilliant book: The BLACK SWAN – The Impact of the HIGHLY IMPROBABLE, provides a way to discuss how we can move more rapidly beyond fossil fuels.<br /><br />Two revolutionary breakthroughs in energy have surfaced so far this year.<br /><br />Joule Unlimited has announced they can create diesel for $30/barrel. The process combines solar energy, water and carbon dioxide with bacteria. The same process can also be used to create alcohol fuels without agriculture and gasoline with no need for oil.<br /><br />Andrea Rossi has demonstrated his Energy Catalyst in Italy. Incorrectly called “Cold Fusion” it is in production. A one Megawatt heating plant is scheduled for completion in October. Rossi claims electricity can be produced for one cent per kilowatt hour. Dr. Edmond Storms, a distinguished scientist has said: “there will be a stampede to buy these things”.<br /><br />Both are Black Swans. A small flock of them are being born. See Black Swans and also “Cold Fusion” at: www.aesopinstitute.org<br /><br />A 24/7 program to validate, develop and produce Black Swans can help move us beyond fossil fuels more rapidly than stalled Washington institutions.Mark Goldeshttp://www.aesopinstitute.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-8570320615713176602011-03-01T22:42:06.614-05:002011-03-01T22:42:06.614-05:00To propose that the government or the industry lim...To propose that the government or the industry limit the amount of natural gas produced in the country in order to stabilize the price and encourage conservation would be an unprecedented intrusion into the free market, right? Wrong! The Texas Railroad Commission which regulates the oil and gas industry in the state essentially used to fulfill the role Saudi Arabia does now, regulating production so as to act as the swing producer in the world to smooth out supplies.<br /><br />I say "used to" because that was true in the days before the United States peaked in its oil production which was 1970. Before then the Railroad Commission "prorated" wells forcing oil companies to produce at only a set percentage of the well's potential rate, changing the rate in response to rising or fall prices to maintain steady oil supplies to the market.<br /><br />This essentially kept prices up when they would have tanked, and kept them down when they would have skyrocketed.<br /><br />Thus, wide price swings were avoided and this made planning and exploration in the industry much more predictable. It also meant the oil wasn't squandered in an orgy of overproduction and price cutting.<br /><br />Henry Kissinger proposed in the 1970s a floor on oil prices in the United States to be implemented by a sliding import fee that changed with prices, but always maintained a minimum price that would encourage conservation and alternatives.<br /><br />It also would have met with approval from the domestic oil and gas industry had it ever been implemented, successfully splitting domestic producers off from international producers politically.<br /><br />But instead of adopting a rational, self-interested energy policy, we adopted no policy which meant one that was most amenable to foreign oil producers.<br /><br />We are making the same mistake again by following a policy that squanders domestic natural gas. This country has a long history of manipulating energy prices and production for specific policy aims. When we decided to deregulate the industry completely what we got was what you would expect: high volatility and high uncertainty that has plagued the country for 40 years.<br /><br />Naturally, what I'm talking about would mean higher prices. But it would also mean a better environment for developing alternatives to fossil fuels and it would encourage conservation.<br /><br />In the current environment, such a policy would seem impossible. But things can change. Look at how much is suddenly changing around us in ways no one anticipated.Kurt Cobbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-44404382961983878022011-03-01T21:49:30.920-05:002011-03-01T21:49:30.920-05:00Kurt, thanks for the good article. You are saying ...Kurt, thanks for the good article. You are saying that gas prices are low because the US economy is not growing. Why does the NG industry continue to dump an oversupply of gas into the market? They should learn from OPEC and limit the supply artificially. That would be in the national interest as well as in the interest of the gas industry. Prices of gas should be a touch below oil prices to make sure that the reserves are not depleted too fast. <br /><br />In addition to clean energy we need most of all a substantial amount of energy conservation. Europe consumes on average half the energy we consume without sacrificing life quality. But then again prices of energy are substantially higher in Europe than they are here in the US.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com