tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post7100075697482049604..comments2024-03-24T11:01:27.668-04:00Comments on Resource Insights: Nuclear war: A forgotten threat to human sustainabilityKurt Cobbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-23266685178786384682014-11-23T20:02:24.873-05:002014-11-23T20:02:24.873-05:00I like the Just-in-Time article. My observation is...I like the Just-in-Time article. My observation is that many industrial managers are increasingly aware of the difficulties that you describe. Some months ago I ran a post to do with Black Swans in the process industries, i.e., events that are completely unpredictable using conventional methods of hazard and risk analysis. I would say that roughly half the respondents said the Black Swans could happen and half said the opposite.<br /><br />The response to a Black Swan is to invest in resilience and diversification. For example, the economics of Just-in-Time and Economies-of-Scale encourage managers to build one large unit with minimal inventories rather than two half-size ones with lots of spare parts and substantial raw material inventories. But, if a catastrophe hits the first system will be wiped out, the second will probably keep going at 50% rates.<br /><br />Of course, these measures will make no difference in the event of a catastrophe such as a major nuclear war, but they could be helpful if lower-level conflict breaks out.ChemEnghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05168251215012150114noreply@blogger.com