tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post3634647945462010949..comments2024-03-24T11:01:27.668-04:00Comments on Resource Insights: Peak oil forecasts and asymmetrical riskKurt Cobbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05330759091950742285noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-87242508291803625432007-05-28T16:32:00.000-04:002007-05-28T16:32:00.000-04:00What must be emphasized in this is that in terms o...What must be emphasized in this is that in terms of asymetrical risk the 50% increase in crude production is what MUST happen to avert the impending crisis. If that outcome is equally likely as a %50 reduction, then we can see that what we really have is a situation where our civilizations existence is contingent on the appearance of the good black swan. We are all pulling for the long shotAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-68472165903576581162007-05-25T09:46:00.000-04:002007-05-25T09:46:00.000-04:00"Red herring comparison. Investing in a sustainabl..."Red herring comparison. Investing in a sustainable economy is in no way comparable to buying a policy from State Farm. Apples and oranges."<BR/><BR/>The thing you have to understand is that your foes in this do believe (or at least can maintain hope) that they live in a sustainable economy.<BR/><BR/>What Kurt is recommending is "insurance" for the case when that idea of "sustainable" doesn't pan out.<BR/><BR/>FWIW, it might be important to think about the word sustainable, and the psuedo-brand "Sustainable(tm)" that gets packaged and sold by green entrepreneurs. I mean, man of those products are swell and I buy them ... but there is both a group think and often a business model at work there as well.<BR/><BR/>- odographAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-813776722678230612007-05-21T19:22:00.000-04:002007-05-21T19:22:00.000-04:00When I was a young man, I believed in my own power...When I was a young man, I believed in my own power and, most certainly, in the brilliance of the human mind/abilities of the world to handle whatever came at it. This article makes me think of so many other intellectual discussions I read that solve the problems so neatly. Sustainable economies, back yard gardens, solving problems with sweeping generalizations, etc, etc. When the s... hits the fan, it is, most certainly, going to be much more out of control than the comfortable discussions over a cup of coffee or a beer make it out to be. Believe me, when you're hungry, cold and wet without a solution in sight, we are all a lot more violent and dangerous than we like to admit. Good luck to all you dreamers!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-40724807023650983402007-05-21T17:32:00.000-04:002007-05-21T17:32:00.000-04:00"It is worth asking the oil optimists why they buy..."It is worth asking the oil optimists why they buy insurance for their homes and cars to protect them in case of catastrophe, but refuse to support taking out insurance for society as whole in the form of investing in a sustainable economy."<BR/><BR/>Red herring comparison. Investing in a sustainable economy is in no way comparable to buying a policy from State Farm. Apples and oranges.<BR/><BR/>Individually we're basically chained to the tracks as we watch a locomotive bear down upon us. There is no WE to take action here. The system that pretty much runs things is a Golem-like confection of money, computers and cheap energy. It has a vocabulary, time horizon and musculature that precludes even sensing the problem. Individuals can see the problem but the system can't. Hence, no WE - just you and me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8861605.post-73552984801929472382007-05-20T18:04:00.000-04:002007-05-20T18:04:00.000-04:00Boy Kurt, that one is on the money.But then, I've ...Boy Kurt, that one is on the money.<BR/><BR/>But then, I've been pushing Taleb to the Peak Oiler for a year or more. I may not be unbiased.<BR/><BR/>(Stumbling on Happiness, by Daniel Gilbert, is proving to be another good read. And coincidently or not, it begins with a discussion of our "present selves" and the actions we take for our "future selves." Recommended as a follow-on to Taleb.)<BR/><BR/>- odographAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com